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1 June 2016 The first day of winter saw AEMO issue a minor Lack Of Reserve (LOR1) notice on Tasmania between 7am and 9.30am, which was withdrawn by 7.44am. Clear blue skies resulted in frosty mornings and a spike in Maximum Demand to 1,589MW with the Spot Price back up to $150/MWh. Meanwhile record high May inflows saw a solid 10% rise in average storage levels from the record low of 12.8% at the end of April to 23% at the end of May.

24 May 2016 Basslink Cable Repair Ship "Ile De Re" has returned to Bass Strait to complete the final two joints on the new section of undersea cable. Subject to weather the estimated supply restoration date for Basslink is now late June. You can listen to ABC Breakfast Host Leon Compton's earlier interview with Basslink CEO Malcolm Eccles on describing the cable lifting and repair process here or click here to find the last known location of the repair vessel, Ile De Re from Vessel Finder via AIS.

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6 May 2016 The Ile De Re Basslink Repair ship remains docked at Pt Henry Geelong awaiting a clear weather window, before returning to Bass Strait.

Meanwhile all but one Hydro Tasmania catchment area was rising and the majority of the State's electricity needs were being met by Hydro generation, following the past weeks rains. The same wet and cold weather saw System Peak Demands also rising with 8.00am Wednesday 4th May reaching 1,278MW closely followed by the previous nights 6.30pm peak of 1,269MW.

5 May 2016 The Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator publishes its Determination for the Residential and Small Business Feed in Tariff (FiT) at 6.6c/kWh for Small Scale Solar and Renewable Energy Systems.

3 May 2016 Hydro Tasmania have provided an updated Energy Supply Plan.

Meanwhile Basslink Advice is that the wild weather and rough seas have closed the Port of Geelong and delayed the final cable jointing process.

26 April 2016 the Basslink repair crew have completed the first of three cable joints and returned to the Port of Geelong

Since the 9th of April Tasmanian Spot Market pricing has been ranging between $100 to $600/MWh, an average of around 24c/kWh (Energy Only). Gas Fired Generation is now producing between 280-321MW.  The planned return of Hydro Tasmania's 58MW Trent Gas fired unit means total Gas fired generation capacity will soon move up to 380MW. In addition, the first 90MW of the planned 200MW of Diesel generation, is up and running and looks to be just in time to meet the increasing 8am and 6pm system peak demands. View the NEM-Watch Live Tasmanian energy supply mix here.

2016 04 23 ABC NEWS 24 Australia Wide Presenter Tony Eastley reports on Tasmania's Power Problems.

20 April 2016 ABC Hobart Mornings Breakfast Host Leon Compton interviews Goanna Principal Marc White on the state of Tasmania's energy woes. Listen here from 9.00Min to 28Min.

Download your March 2016 Tasmanian Energy Newsletter here.

Almost 5 years down the road since this Goanna Energy Presentation, what's changed? You be the judge!

29 March The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) published the National Energy Adequacy Assessment Projection (EAAP). The EAAP for Tasmania summarises that, "Although current hydro storage levels are low (13.9% as at 28 March 2016), hydro, local wind, gas fired and temporary diesel generation is sufficient to meet forecast levels of electricity consumption". AEMO also published the Medium Term Power System Adequacy Assessment (MTPASA), showing no Reserve Shortfall in generation capacity forecast in Tasmania for the next 12 months. View the Tasmanian MTPASA Graph here.

29 March Basslink have provided an updated Media Statement advising that they have pinpointed the exact location and identified the cable fault to a rupture the size of a 10c peice in the 300km cable. Basslink will now move to replace over 1km of cable which will require 3 joints, rather than 2 and as such have provided a revised Basslink return to service target date of mid-June 2016.

22 March 2016 Basslink Slams Misinformation Media Statement.

21 March 2016 Hydro Tasmania have provided an updated Energy Supply Plan detailing the first 24MW of diesel generation now running at Catagunya Power Station. Whilst the past weeks rains slowed the rate of overall decline with Energy in Storage now at 14.6%. Hydro Tasmania is now planning Phase 2 of the Energy Supply Plan, should Basslink remain out of service post 30 June 2016.

Read the 13 March Basslink Media Statement here.

10 March 2016 Basslink publishes Media Statement Clarifying energy flows on day of cable failure.

7th March 2016 Listen to ABC Radio National Host Fran Kelly 7Min Interview of Goanna Energy consultant Marc White, on the Tasmanian Electricity Supply situation here. Tasmania enters uncharted territory as Hydro Energy in Storage declines to 15.5%, the lowest operating level on record.

3 March 2016 Click here to read The Australian Financial Review story by Ben Potter on Tasmania's energy supply situation or listen to 666ABC Canberra Breakfast Radio Host Philip Clark interview Goanna Consultant Marc White on the state of Tasmania's energy supply. To listen to the ABC Audio click here and fast forward the cursor toward the end at 3:07:40

29th February Hydro Tasmania have provided an updated Energy Supply Plan, here.

23rd February 2016 ABC News Alex Blucher explains Tasmania's Power crisis, watch the 2Min Video here.

22nd February 2016 Hydro Tasmania are planning to meet all Tasmanian energy demand without Basslink in operation and have provided a public Energy Supply Plan, Operational Update here.

Listen to Leon Compton interview Premier Hodgman on the Basslink outage (from 10.55Min to 16.25Min) and Goanna Principal Consultant Marc White, here, from 36.00Min to 42.03Min.

15th February 2016 ABC Radio National (RN Drive) Host Patricia Karvelas interviews Goanna Principal Consultant, Marc White on the Basslink cable failure and it's impact on Tasmania, audio Link Here.

4th February 2016: Hydro Tasmania announce commercial load reduction agreement with Bell Bay Aluminium Smelter. Read the Examiner Story by Georgie Burgess Here.

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25th January 2016 The Tasmanian State Government has also released a Basslink & Energy Update here.

21th January 2016: Listen to ABC Radio National PM Felicity Ogilvie "Tasmania turning gas fired power station back on to cope with dry hydro dams". After ramping up to 126MW at 2pm on 19th Jan by 4.45pm 20th Jan the AEMO Market Management System was showing the Tamar Valley Power Station Combined Cycle Unit hitting close to it's name plate rating and generating 202MW of supply into the Tasmanian Grid. At 5.20am 21st Jan TVPS CCGT was injecting on its plate rating of 205MW. The Tasmanian Gas Pipeline from Longford Victoria also set a new all time offtake record of 74TJ's on 19th Jan as the Tamar Valley Power Station was fired up.

18 January 2016 listen to ABC Statewide Breakfast Host Leon Compton interview Goanna Principal Consultant Marc White on the repair of Basslink and Tasmanian electricity security contingency plans, 10Min Audio file here

7 January 2016 ABC Statewide Breakfast Host Sarah Gillman interviews Goanna Principal Consultant Marc White on the Basslink fault, Hydro Tasmania storage levels and the Tasmanian electricity outlook. Listen to the 10min Audio file here (it's 5MB so will take a few seconds to load).

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NEWS FROM WAY BACK IN 2015:

Clean Energy Council Energy/Battery Storage Safety Summary here.

22 December 2015 The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released a Media Statement regarding the Basslink Outage which occured on Sunday 20 December and as at 24 December Basslink remains out of service. AEMO forecast no supply shortages for the next 14 days and Basslink asset owner (Keppel Infrastructure Trust) are assembling a team of experts to diagnose and repair the fault. At the time of the incident the Tasmanian System Protection Scheme operated (as designed) and curtailed four major industrial customers with their load being restored within 30 minutes. This prevented any disruption to commercial and residential consumers.

With Energy in Storage at 24.8% and falling as at 21 Dec 2015, what are the potential longer term implications for Tasmanian Energy Users? Well it all depends on rainfall and how long it takes to repair the Basslink fault. The 22 Dec AEMO forecast showed no short term supply shortfalls, and Hydro Tasmania have provided a News Release that they are confident of meeting demand for 60 days, the (contracted) time which Basslink have to return the cable to service.

16 December 2015 Hydro Tasmania announces restart of Combined Cycle Gas fired Turbine (CCGT) at Tamar Valley Power Station in the first quarter of 2016, following lowest September - November inflows on record. Read the Hydro Tas Media Release here. For Tasmanian consumers just under a quarter or 23% of the delivered cost of residential electricity is in energy generation, with the bulk (60%) being the cost of the poles and wires or Network services.

25 November 2015 Forward Wholesale Electricity Prices rally and Tasmanian businesses scramble for cover as water (Energy in Storage) levels drop below 27%.

For more information on current Tasmanian energy prices, call Marc White on 0418 596 162 or e-mail marc@goannaenergy.com.au

Auditor-General's Report shows further challenges ahead for Hydro Tasmania. Read the 17 November ABC report by Rosemary Bolger here.

Our November 2015 Newsletter is out now, and you can register here for the next edition.

2 November 2015 ABC Statewide host Sarah Gillman interview's Goanna consultant Marc White on the GBE Annual reports of Hydro Tasmania, TasNetworks and Aurora Energy, as well as the State of the Tasmanian energy market, listen to the 16m Audio here.

October 2015 Tasmanian Energy News Update click here to view.

29 October 2015 Hydro Tasmania published their 2014/15 Annual Report. Generating an Operating Cash Flow of $25.5m despite a 35% decline in revenue to $1.5b and a 46% decline in Hydro generation compared to 2013/14. The Auditor General's November Report highlighting the inadequate cash flow to fund capital investments and dividends resulting in borrowings from the slide into Negative Free Cash Flow once the $100m Capital Works program is taken into account. Significant impacts to the Income Statement included adjustments for a Revaluation and Impairment gain of $232m, which was partially offset by Fair value losses of $41m on Basslink and $73m on Energy Price Derivatives. Of note the Income sensitivity to electricity price risk exposure from a +/- 10% movement in forward pricing, increased by some 36% to around $145m. Although noting that the generation assets can to some extent provide a "natural" hedging effect to the derivative exposure.

TasNetworks released their 2014/15 Annual Report, citing a $35m below budget revenue of $584m partially offset by strong cost control, for narrowly missing their profit target of $117m with a $113m result. The repport also notes that the near $13m cost of funding the grandfathered solar Feed in Tariff (FiT) was $2.9m higher than expected.

28 October 2015 Aurora Energy published is 2014/15 Annual Report. Boasting a Profit before Tax of $45m ($31.5m After Tax) on declining Operating Revenues of $949m, the Report showed that Net Assets had doubled to $83m off the back of lower than budget expenses, strong earnings and favourable movements in cash and financial derivatives. These impressive results were achieved off the back of a lack of competition for residential consumers and despite the fact that grid consumption had continued to decline.

On 11th September 2015 ABC Radio Statewide Mornings Host Leon Compton interviewed Goanna Principal Consultant, Marc White on TasNetworks tariff reform, the state of the Tasmanian Energy Market and the GBE Reporting season. Listen to the 9 Min Audio here.

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19 June Tasmanian Economic Regulator approves a 1.95% increase on Standing Offer Electricity Tariffs for Small Business and Residential consumers. The Regulator cited increases in Distribution and Renewable Energy Program costs, which were somewhat offset by reductions in Energy and Transmission costs leading to the modest overall increase. Click here for the 2015/16 Standing Offer Tariffs.

The Regulator also determined the regulated feed-in tariff rate to standard feed-in tariff customers during 2015-16 for electricity exported to the grid is 5.5c/kWh. (NB: Grid feed in rates for larger non-standard instalations are individually negotiated).

7 May 2015 the Tasmanian State Government has released the Department of State Growth's, Energy Strategy. The report entitled "Tasmanian Energy Strategy – Restoring Tasmania’s Energy Advantage", inludes 43 action items to help restore energy as a competitive advantage for Tasmania.  Goanna is proud to have contributed to the Tasmanian Small Business Councils (TSBC) Issues Paper submission as well as our Principal Consultants participation in the Energy Working Group.

We are committed to bringing you the latest information on changes in the Tasmanian energy market . Subscribe now for free here to receive our updates or e-mail us your questions on an energy topic of interest.

For information on current Tasmanian energy prices, call Marc White on 0418 596 162 or e-mail marc@goannaenergy.com.au

 

MAJOR PUBLICATIONS & REPORTS:

2014 Tasmanian Small Business Council (TSBC) Response to the State Government Energy Issues Paper.

2014 Tasmanian Small Business Council submission on TasNetworks Transmission Revenue Proposal 2014/15 to 2018/19. Transmission tariffs feed into retail tariffs and the Tasmanian Small Business Council (TSBC) objective is to have electricity transmission prices falling over the next 5 years. The TSBC Submission is available for download here.

2014 Tasmanian Small Business Council Submission on the Transend Transitional Revenue Proposal.  The TSBC Submission welcomes Transend's planned reductions in Cap Ex (to $304M) and Op Ex (to $227M) but notes the impact of falling electricity demand. The TSBC Submission is important because these costs feed straight into Retail Electricity Tariffs and are also passed through to consumers on electricity contracts. The Australian Energy Regulators (AER) Transitional Determination sets the Maximum Allowable Revenue that Transend can levy for its Tasmanian electricity transport services.

2013 The Tasmanian Small Business Council (TSBC) Submission to the Tasmanian Economic Regulator (TER), on the "Proposed Changes to the Interim Price-Regulated Electricity Retail Service Price Determinations", highlighted concerns regarding Retail Margin allowances and Customer Acquisition and Retentions cost allowances, given little evidence that competition will emerge for Tasmania's Residential and Small Business customers (known as Small Offer Customers).

2013 the Tasmanian Small Business Council Submission noted it's concerns that, "the Government has opted for an approach to wholesale market reform which the Independent Panel found to be inferior", Read the full TSBC Submission here.

2013 Tasmanian Small Business Council (TSBC) report "The Final Step: Moving to full retail competition in the Tasmanian electricity market". The report focuses on initiatives to improve electricity competition for Tasmania's small medium enterprise customers. The report was funded by the Consumer Advocacy Panel (AP 497).

2012: TFGA report on the "Relevance of Contestability Aggregation Rules for Tasmanian Tranche 5a". The report funded by the Consumer Advocacy Panel (AP 493) identified average savings of 10% for irrigators and agri-business, through a strategy of aggregation, competitive contracting and optimal network tariffs. Tasmania's adoption of the National Energy Customer Framework on 1 July 2012 enabled the aggregation of non-adjoining sites for contestability, a major recommendation of the report.

2011: "Overcoming the Barriers to Embedded Renewable Generation in Tasmania". Despite rising electricity costs, strong business interest and other supporting factors, such as the Mandatory Renewable Energy Target, commercial scale renewable embedded generation projects in Tasmania remain the domain of a handful of committed individuals and companies. This report has stood the test of time, with some readers suggesting it applies nationally. Download the Executive Summary here. Or Download the Full Report here.

2010: "Issues facing Tasmania's Newly Contestable Electricity Customers". The report looks at the challenges faced by newly contestable electricity customers, the lack of active retail competition and what to do to improve competitive outcomes for consumers. With Full Retail Competition in Tasmania due to commence on 1 January 2014, it may be time to dust this insightful report off and ask, what needs to change?

 

PAST NEWSLETTERS:

Our October 2014 Newsletter - John Devereaux, Energy in Perspective is out now download your copy here.

September 2014 Newsletter - Roman Domanski, Energy in Perspective.

May 2014 Newsletter. State Energy Working Group and Market Update.

November 2013 Newsletter Tasmanian Natural Gas Users Hit by Trifecta of Rising Costs and Risks.

October 2013 Newsletter. What does the failed Aurora Energy sale mean?

April 2013 Newsletter spotlight on managing overdue energy bills & security deposits for businesses.

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